Trading Netflix After Q4 2023 Performance

January 31, 2024 19:22

The end-of-year holiday period is a key time for most retailers but also streaming companies. Subscription gift cards and presents can often lead to a higher number of subscribers - a key metric tech investors follow. 

Learn more about Netflix's fiscal fourth-quarter performance and what the analysts are forecasting for the stock. 

Stock: Netflix Inc
Symbol for Invest.MT5 Account: NFLX
Date of Idea: 31 January 2024
Time Line: 1 - 6 months
Entry Level: $563.00
Target Level: $700.00
Position Size for Invest.MT5 Account: Max 5%
Risk: High
  • The Invest.MT5 account allows you to buy real stocks and shares from 15 of the largest stock exchanges in the world.

All trading is high risk and you can lose more than you risk on a trade. Never invest more than you can afford to lose, as some trades will lose and some trades will win. Start small to understand your own risk tolerance levels or practice on a demo account first to build your knowledge before investing. 

Netflix Q4 2023 Performance

Here are some of the key highlights from the latest fourth-quarter earnings report from Netflix: 

  • Earnings per share of $2.11 vs $2.22 expected 
  • Revenue of $8.83 billion vs $8.72 billion expected 
  • 13.1 million new subscribers added 
  • Net income of $937.8 million vs $55.3 million in the prior year 
  • Q1 2024 earnings per share forecast of $4.49, higher than $4.10 expected 

Netflix beat analyst forecasts on most metrics. The growth in subscribers was much higher than Wall Street expected - even as the streaming giant cracks down on password sharing. There are now 260.8 million paid subscribers which is a new record for Netflix.  

Other streaming rivals have struggled recently, cutting down on content and growing through mergers and acquisitions of entertainment assets. Netflix has stated they are not going down that traditional route and are instead working on partnerships with content creators. For example, it will start streaming WWE Raw next year - a huge step into live entertainment.  

The company also launched its ad-tier service. There are now 23 million global monthly active users, compared to 15 million in November. Still, Netflix does not see this as a primary revenue driver for 2024.  

However, investors need to be mindful that the surge higher in its stock price after the earnings announcement means that much of the good news may already be priced in. The real test is if Netflix can hold on to its subscribers outside of the holiday season where it tends to have a boost.  

The more than 250% rally in Netflix's share price since the lows of May 2022, has some analysts weary. This can be seen in more analysts providing a hold rating on the stock and one even providing a sell rating on the stock, as detailed below.

Netflix Stock Forecast - What do the Analysts Say?

According to analysts polled by TipRanks for a Netflix stock forecast in the past 3 months, there are currently 27 buy, 12 hold and 1 sell ratings on the stock. The highest price level for a Netflix stock forecast is $700.00 with the lowest price target at $375.00. 

The average price target for a Netflix stock forecast is $573.32.

Source: TipRanks, 31 January 2024


An Example Trading Idea for the Netflix Stock Price

An example trading idea for the Netflix share price could be as follows:  

  • Buy the stock on a break above the post-earnings high at $563.00 to allow for volatility. 
  • Target just below the highest analyst price target of $700.00. 
  • Keep your risk small at a maximum of 5% of your total account. 
  • Time Line = 1 – 6 months 
  • If you buy 10 Netflix shares:  
    • If target is reached = $1,370.00 potential profit [($700.00 - $563.00) * 10 shares].

Remember that markets go up and down and it is unlikely the share price will move up in a straight line. In fact, it may even go much further down before it rises, especially considering how far the stock has already risen and the seasonal boost it received in the last quarter may not continue in the next quarter.

Be sure to exercise good risk management and always know how much you could potentially lose on a trade and the risks involved, as well as the costs.

With the Admirals Invest.MT5 account you can buy and sell US stocks with a commission from $0.02 per share. This means buying 10 shares in Netflix stock would result in a commission of $0.20 ($0.02 * 10 shares) for executing a per-side transaction.

There is a low minimum transaction fee of $1. So, the example trading idea above would result in a commission of just $1 overall! 

How to Buy Netflix Stock in 4 Steps  

With Admirals, you can buy shares in companies like Netflix with a low commission of just $0.02 per share and a low minimum commission of just $1 on US stocks. 

  1. Open an account with Admirals to access the dashboard.   
  2. Click on Trade on one of your live or demo accounts to open the web platform.   
  3. Search for your stock in the search window at the top right to view the live price chart. 
  4. Click Create New Order from the bottom of the screen to open the trading ticket. 
Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5. Netflix. Monthly. Date: Jan 2017 to Jan 2024, captured on 30 Jan 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future performance.


Click on the banner below to trade Netflix stock today ▼▼▼ 

Do You See the Netflix Stock Price Moving Differently?   

Remember that all analytics and trading ideas are based on the personal view and experience of the author.

If you believe there is a higher chance Netflix share price will move lower, then you can also trade short from a CFD (Contracts for Difference) trading account which Admirals also provide.

The Trade.MT5 and Trade.MT4 account allows you to speculate on the price direction of stocks and shares using CFDs.

This means you can trade long and short to potentially profit from rising and falling stock prices.


The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals’ investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:   

  • This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.    
  • Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admirals shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content. 
  • With a view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admirals has established relevant internal procedures for the prevention and management of conflicts of interest. 
  • The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Jitanchandra Solanki (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.    
  • Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admirals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.    
  • Any kind of past or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admirals for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed. 
  • Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. 
Jitanchandra Solanki
Jitanchandra Solanki Financial Markets Author, Admirals London

Jitanchandra is a financial markets author with more than 15 years experience trading currencies, indices and US equities. He is an accredited Market Technician with a BA Hons degree.