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Actualités économiques
DJ Canada Inflation Cools to 1.7%, an Eight-Month Low -- Update

By Robb M. Stewart

OTTAWA--Inflation in Canada cooled sharply in April with the scrapping of the federal carbon tax, though households still faced some price pressures, including a rise in grocery costs.

The consumer-price index slipped 0.1% last month, the first monthly decline of the year, and was down 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, Statistics Canada said Tuesday.

Year-over-year inflation softened to 1.7% in April, an eight-month low. That was modestly hotter than the 1.6% economists had expected but still returned inflation to below the Bank of Canada's 2% goal after two months above target.

The main driver of the slowdown was a retreat in energy costs, including an 18.1% drop in gasoline prices from a year earlier after the consumer portion of the federal government's carbon tax was axed, effective April 1. That masked possible early signs of the effects of higher tariffs, which are expected to lift some prices in the coming months.

Stripping out energy, annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in April from a 2.5% advance the month before. That likely leaves the door open for the Bank of Canada to again lower interest rates.

The outlook for Canada's economy, which ended last year with a pickup in growth, has become uncertain since President Trump began unleashing his tariff policies in March. The Bank of Canada has forecast inflation will average 1.5% in the second quarter after heating up to 2.4% in the first three months of the year, while gross domestic product is expected to flatline or even contract this quarter as household demand and business investment weaken.

Annual growth in the central bank's preferred measures of core inflation, which exclude the effect of tax changes, heated up in April. Trimmed mean and weighted median CPI rose an average 3.15%, the fastest pace since last June, after holding roughly steady at 2.85% in March.

Ottawa's retaliatory tariffs in response to the Trump administration's import levies kicked in during April, though economists anticipate it will take some time for the effects of Canada's tariffs to work through inventories and supply chains. Per Bank, chief executive of big supermarket owner Loblaw, last week said customers should expect the number of items on store shelves affected by tariffs to surge in the coming weeks, notably pantry staples and health and beauty products.

Lower crude prices last month, amid a fall in global oil demand that coincided with slowing international trade, and supply increases from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, added to downward pressure on Canadian energy prices.

Still, Canadians paid more for food at stores, with prices increasing 3.8% from a year earlier after an increase of 3.2% the month before. Prices for groceries have increased at a faster rate than the all-items consumer price index for three consecutive months.

Prices for food bought at restaurants also climbed in April and outpaced broader inflation, and the cost of travel tours increased year-over-year after a fall the month before.

Mortgage interest costs and rent, which have eased in recent months, remained the biggest contributors to annual inflation.

The Bank of Canada's governing council next meets to decide on monetary policy in early June, and economists believe there is room for officials to resume lowering interest rates after holding its fire in April following seven cuts in a row. The economy has already shown signs of losing momentum, manufacturing activity retreated in March, and the labor market is showing signs of stress with the jobless rate in April climbing to a five-month high.

Write to Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 20, 2025 08:39 ET (12:39 GMT)

© 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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Existing Home Sales Seen Up, New Home Sales Seen Down -- Data Week Ahead

The following are median forecasts for this week's remaining U.S. data from a survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal.

 
DATE      TIME  RELEASE                       PERIOD     CONSENSUS    PREVIOUS 
Thursday  0830  Jobless Claims                 May 17     230K   (18)  229K 
          0945  S&P Global Flash U.S. Mfg PMI  May        49.8   (11)  50.2* 
          0945  S&P Global Flash U.S. Svcs PMI May        50.6   (9)   50.8* 
          1000  Existing Home Sales            Apr        4.13M  (23)  4.02M 
                  -- percent change            Apr       +2.7%        -5.9% 
          1100  Kansas City Fed Mfg Svy        May        N/A         -4 
                  Composite Index 
Friday    1000  New Home Sales                 Apr        695K   (22)  724K 
                  -- percent change            Apr       -4.0%        +7.4% 
 
*Apr Final Reading 
 
(Figures in parentheses refer to number of economists surveyed.) 
 
Write to Donna Huneke at dataweekahead@wsj.com 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 20, 2025 10:14 ET (14:14 GMT)

© 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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Richmond Fed's Barkin: Rural Counties Can Make Their Own Luck

By Matt Grossman

Rural communities can foster economic growth by setting policies that encourage housing and workforce development, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Tuesday.

At a conference in Roanoke, Va., Barkin laid out lessons from counties that he described as success stories in the Richmond Fed's Fifth District. More than 200 counties in the district saw population loss between 2010 and 2020, Barkin said, but 59 of those counties flipped back to growth between 2020 and 2023.

Housing affordability was a key differentiator for many of the counties that were able to draw new movers, Barkin said. He pointed to the redevelopment of a disused cotton mill in Rocky Mount, N.C. that has been converted into residences and office space. Too often, political roadblocks get in the way of that kind of development, Barkin said.

"NIMBYism is real. Where it is strong, development efforts face added time, cost and uncertainty," Barkin said, according to a published text of his remarks. "We've heard it's held back a number of exurbs that were otherwise well positioned for growth."

Rural communities should also find ways to support their local workforces, Barkin said. He said local universities and community colleges, with proper investment, can propel economic development. Two schools near Salisbury, Md. that support business education have helped fuel a strong labor market in the region, Barkin said.

"Now-growing counties, both exurbs and those further out, didn't begin their growth journeys in 2020," Barkin said. "Their momentum started earlier."

Write to Matt Grossman at matt.grossman@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 20, 2025 09:14 ET (13:14 GMT)

© 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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Comparaison économique
U.S.
Euro Area
Japon
ROYAUME-UNI
Australie
VS
U.S.
Euro Area
Japon
ROYAUME-UNI
Australie
PIB
-0.3%
PIB
0.3%
Taux d'intérêt
4.5%
Taux d'intérêt
2.4%
Taux de chômage
4.2%
Taux de chômage
6.2%
Inflation
2.3%
Inflation
2.2%
Événements à venir
mar.
05/20
Décision sur les taux de la Reserve Bank of Australia
05/204:30 AM
Country Flag
AUS
Prévision
3,85
Précédent
4,1
Actuel
3,85
Indicateur rapide de confiance des consommateurs (IRCC)
05/202:00 PM
Country Flag
EU
Prévision
-16
Précédent
-16,6
Actuel
-15,2
mer.
05/21
IPC
05/216:00 AM
Country Flag
UK
Prévision
1%
Précédent
0,3%
Actuel
-
Rapport hebdomadaire sur l'utilisation du pétrole EIA
05/212:30 PM
Country Flag
US
Prévision
-
Précédent
441,83M
Actuel
-
jeu.
05/22
Finances du secteur public
05/226:00 AM
Country Flag
UK
Prévision
16,9B
Précédent
16,4B
Actuel
-
Indice PMI rapide Zone euro
05/228:00 AM
Country Flag
EU
Prévision
50,8
Précédent
50,1
Actuel
-
Indice PMI rapide CIPS
05/228:30 AM
Country Flag
UK
Prévision
50
Précédent
48,2
Actuel
-
Indice IPC première moitié du mois
05/2212:00 PM
Country Flag
MEX
Prévision
-
Précédent
0,12%
Actuel
-
PIB à prix constants
05/2212:00 PM
Country Flag
MEX
Prévision
-
Précédent
-0,6%
Actuel
-
Ventes de maisons existantes
05/222:00 PM
Country Flag
US
Prévision
4,13M
Précédent
4,02M
Actuel
-
Rapport hebdomadaire sur le stockage du gaz naturel EIA
05/222:30 PM
Country Flag
US
Prévision
-
Précédent
2255B
Actuel
-
Enquête de confiance des consommateurs Royaume-Uni
05/2211:01 PM
Country Flag
UK
Prévision
-
Précédent
-23
Actuel
-
Indice IPC hors produits alimentaires (National)
05/2211:30 PM
Country Flag
JPN
Prévision
-
Précédent
3,2%
Actuel
-
ven.
05/23
Ventes au détail
05/236:00 AM
Country Flag
UK
Prévision
0,3%
Précédent
0,4%
Actuel
-
Commerce de détail
05/2312:30 PM
Country Flag
CAN
Prévision
-0,3%
Précédent
-0,4%
Actuel
-
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