Markets focus on US and UK GDP data reports
The US and UK GDP reports for the fourth quarter of 2022 draw investors' and traders’ attention. In Japan, the BoJ’s outgoing governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that “the economy is closer than before to sustainably hit the 2% inflation target.”
Australia’s CPI inflation came in at 6.8% on a year-to-year basis in February, while ANZ’s analysts noted in a report that “Australia’s monthly CPI indicator showed inflation momentum remains strong and is not slowing as much as the fall in annual inflation would suggest. Along with previous data releases, this makes us comfortable with our call that the RBA will raise the cash rate 25 bps at its April meeting.”
A report by the GfK Institute published earlier in the morning showed that German consumer confidence is set to improve in April for the sixth consecutive month as energy prices have retreated from record highs. GfK’s economists noted that “the anticipated loss of purchasing power is preventing a sustained recovery of domestic demand. This is also indicated by the still very low level of consumer confidence.”
US Q4 2022 GDP report
On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish data regarding the US GDP growth in the last quarter of 2022. Economists suggest that the US economy expanded by 2.7% on a quarterly basis in Q4 2022. It should be noted that the country’s economy grew by 3.2% during the third quarter of last year.
A survey by the US Census Bureau revealed that the trade gap in goods increased slightly to $91.6 billion from $91.1 billion in January. Retail inventories jumped 0.8% in the month with economists suggesting that higher inventories could boost GDP growth and anticipating a 1-3% figure in the first quarter of 2023.
UK GDP Q4 2022 data on Friday
On Friday, traders will have the opportunity to scrutinise the UK GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2022, provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Market analysts expect data to show that the economy remained unchanged in the last quarter.
An ONS survey published on March 10th had shown that the UK’s economy grew by 0.3% on a month-to-month basis in January, higher than the 0.1% figure anticipated by economists. The UK remains the only G7 economy that hasn’t fully recovered from the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. The Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast a five-quarter recession beginning in Q1 2023, but published figures do not seem to be in line with their forecasts.
Tokyo CPI Inflation In February
On Thursday evening, the Japanese Statistics Bureau is expected to release the March Tokyo CPI data. Market analysts forecast inflation to come in at 3.2% on a year-to-year basis. Economists highlight that Japan’s headline CPI inflation in February fell largely due to the implementation of government energy subsidies.
China: NBS Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing PMIs in March
China’s Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) will release data regarding the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs in March. Market analysts suggest that the Manufacturing PMI will come in at 51.2 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI at 54.9. Both figures are expected to be lower than February’s readings.
ING’s analysts warned that the sustainability of February’s rebound would be uncertain and reiterated that the Chinese services industry is likely to outperform the manufacturing sector this year.
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